# District Projection Summary

## Understanding the Report

Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, there was no testing in the spring of 2020, so the projection reports changed as follows:

• All projections assume the 2019 average schooling experience.
• Projections for grade 4 math and ELA use two predictors rather than three.

The data in this report varies based on the type of projection you selected.

### Projections to Non-College Readiness Assessments

Students are grouped based on probability ranges for the selected projection. The first rows of the table display the numbers and percentages of students whose probabilities of reaching the selected performance levels fall into specified ranges. Each row is represented by a slice in the pie graph.

Numbers are not rounded when calculating probabilities. However, for display purposes they are rounded in the table. Students are placed into groups using non-rounded numbers. Therefore, it is possible that two students with the same number on screen could be in two different groups due to rounding.

ColorProbability of Reaching the Selected Performance LevelInterpretation

Green

Greater than 70%Students are likely to reach the selected performance level/state percentile or above

Yellow

Between 50% and 70%

Students may or may not reach at least the selected performance level/state percentile

Light Red

Between 25% and 50%

Students are not likely to reach the selected performance level/state percentile

Dark Red

Less than 25%

Students are not likely to reach the selected performance level/state percentile

Two additional rows in the table list the numbers and percentages of students who do not have projections for the selected assessment.

ColorGroup of StudentsExplanation

Blue

Students at or above proficiency

These students passed the selected assessment with a score of Proficient or above. This row appears only for EOC assessments.

WhiteStudents without a projection

Examples of reasons why students might not have projections:

• Insufficient data. Students must have the minimum number of prior scores across grades and subjects.
• Students tested in the same subject at a higher level. Students who have scores for Algebra II do not receive projections to Algebra I.

If you have access to student data, you can click on the values in the Student Count column or the corresponding pie slice to see the list of students in that group. In the list, the far-right column displays each student's probability of reaching the selected performance level. Click this value to view a student's projection report.

### Projections to College Readiness Assessments

Projections are provided to the following ACT scores.

 Subject Score Benchmark or Reference Score Math 19 Tennessee Board of Regents requires an ACT Math score of 19 to enroll in freshman level math courses 22 ACT benchmark for a 50/50 chance of B or better in first-year college Algebra1 26 Average ACT score for Tennessee Math, Science, Engineering, and Technical field college graduates2 Science Reasoning 21 Average ACT score for all Tennessee Board of Regents and University of Tennessee System graduates2 22 Average ACT score for Tennessee Board of Regents and University of Tennessee Nursing graduates2 23 ACT benchmark for a 50/50 chance of B or better in first-year college Biology1 English 18 ACT benchmark for a 50/50 chance of B or better in first-year college English Composition1 23 Average ACT score for all Tennessee Board of Regents and University of Tennessee System graduates2 24 Average ACT score for all Tennessee Board of Regents and University of Tennessee graduates majoring in English2 Reading 22 ACT benchmark for a 50/50 chance of B or better in first-year college Social Sciences or Humanities courses1 23 Average ACT score for all Tennessee Board of Regents and University of Tennessee System graduates2 Composite 21 ACT score required to be eligible for a Tennessee Lottery HOPE or ASPIRE Scholarship3
2 Averages provided by Tennessee Higher Education Commission

In this report, students are grouped based on probability ranges for the selected projection. The first four rows of the table display the number and percentage of students whose probabilities of reaching the selected score fall into specified ranges. Each row is represented by a slice in the pie graph.

ColorProbability of Scoring At or Above Selected ScoreInterpretation

Green

Greater than 70%

Students are likely to achieve or exceed the selected score.

Yellow

Between 50% and 70%

Students may or may not achieve the selected score.

Light Red

Between 25% and 50%

Students have a lower probability of achieving the selected score.

Red

Less than 25%

Students are not likely to achieve the selected score.

White

N/A

Students without a projection.

Numbers are not rounded when calculating the probability of proficiency. However, for display purposes they are rounded in the table. Students are placed into groups using non-rounded numbers. Therefore, it is possible that two students with the same number on screen could be in two different groups due to rounding.

If you have access to student data, you can click on the values in the Student Count column or the corresponding pie slice to see the list of students in that group. In the list, the far-right column displays each student's probability of reaching the selected performance level or benchmark. Click on this value to view a student's projection report.

### Filtering by Student Group

By default, the report includes all students in the school or district who appear in the data. You can filter the list of students and view the report for a demographic subset.

To filter the list of students included in the report, click Select Student Groups above the table. In the Student Groups window, you can choose any combination of race, gender, and demographic groups.

If you choose more than one group within a category, the report includes students who are in either group. For example, if you choose Black or African American and Hispanic, the report includes both Black/African American students and Hispanic students.

If you choose multiple groups across categories, the report includes only students who are in the selected groups in all categories. For example, if you choose Male and Students with Disabilities, the report includes only boys who are identified as students with disabilities.

When you are finished making selections, click Submit. The report includes only those groups of students you selected.

To remove the filters, click Clear Student Groups above the table. The report now includes all students in the selected grade.