# Student Projection

## Understanding the Report

Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, there was no testing in the spring of 2020, so the projection reports changed as follows:

• All projections assume the 2019 average schooling experience.
• Projections for grade 4 math and ELA use two predictors rather than three.

The Student Projection report displays information about a student's likely performance on future assessments. The projections are based on each student's individual testing history across grades and subjects, and they represent how the student is likely to perform if the student makes average academic growth between now and the time the next assessment is administered.

The data is presented in a chart and two tables.

### Understanding the Graph

 The data in the chart is expressed in state percentiles.The red circles represent the student's performance on prior assessments in the selected subject. You'll want to keep in mind that even though the report displays the student's prior scores in only the selected subject, the student's prior scores across tested subjects are used to generate the projection.The yellow square represents the student's projected score. This point indicates how the student is likely to perform on the selected assessment if the student makes average academic growth in this subject.The colored hash marks represent meaningful scores on the selected assessment. A legend is provided below the graph.

For grades 4–8 and EOC subjects, the lines represent the minimum score for each state proficiency level. For ACT, these lines represent meaningful benchmarks.

To see the state percentile for each mark, place your cursor over the hash mark.

Scores on ACT are closely related to success in college courses. The table below shows how various ACT scores are associated with access to college and successful completion of college courses and courses of study.

 Subject Score Benchmark or Reference Score Math 19 Tennessee Board of Regents requires an ACT Math score of 19 to enroll in freshman level math courses 22 ACT benchmark for a 50/50 chance of B or better in first-year college Algebra1 26 Average ACT score for Tennessee Math, Science, Engineering, and Technical field college graduates2 Science Reasoning 21 Average ACT score for all Tennessee Board of Regents and University of Tennessee System graduates2 22 Average ACT score for Tennessee Board of Regents and University of Tennessee Nursing graduates2 23 ACT benchmark for a 50/50 chance of B or better in first-year college Biology1 English 18 ACT benchmark for a 50/50 chance of B or better in first-year college English Composition1 23 Average ACT score for all Tennessee Board of Regents and University of Tennessee System graduates2 24 Average ACT score for all Tennessee Board of Regents and University of Tennessee graduates majoring in English2 Reading 22 ACT benchmark for a 50/50 chance of B or better in first-year college Social Sciences or Humanities courses1 23 Average ACT score for all Tennessee Board of Regents and University of Tennessee System graduates2 Composite 21 ACT score required to be eligible for a Tennessee Lottery HOPE or ASPIRE Scholarship3
2 Averages provided by Tennessee Higher Education Commission

Scores on AP exams are also closely related to success in college courses. The table below shows how various AP scores are associated with the successful completion of college courses. According to the College Board, "qualified" means a student has proven to be capable of doing introductory-level college coursework in a specific subject.

AP
ScoreBenchmark
3A score of 3 indicates a student is qualified.
4A score of 4 indicates the student is well qualified.
5A score of 5 indicates the student is extremely well qualified to receive college credit for that course.
4 https://apscore.collegeboard.org

### Understanding the Tables

The first table below the chart displays the student's projection data.

The cell on the left displays the student's projected state percentile. This value represents how the student is likely to score relative to the state distribution if the student makes average academic growth from now until the next assessment is administered. The projected percentile in this cell of the table is represented by the yellow square in the graph.

The rest of the cells in the table list the student's probability of reaching each assessment milestone noted. For EOC subjects, these cells represent the student's likelihood of reaching each of the state's proficiency levels. For grades 3–8 and the early grades assessments, these cells indicate the student's likelihood of reaching the 25th, 50th, or 75th percentile in the state distribution on the selected assessment. For ACT, the cells indicate the student's likelihood of reaching meaningful benchmark scores.

The second table lists the student's testing history in the selected subject. In the first row, prior scores for assessments analyzed with the gain model are listed as state NCEs. Social Studies for grades 5–8 are expressed in scale scores. Prior scores in all other tests are listed as scale scores. In the second row, scores for all assessments are listed as state percentiles.